The Last Dictatorship In Europe.

I felt quite reluctant to post this as I felt that I couldn’t quite get the whole picture of what is happening in Belarus. Even the conclusions, if I can call them that feel…inconclusive.

On July 3rd, the “official” independence  celebrations were taking place in the Belorussian capital Minsk. The President Alexander Lukashenko was present. Just after midnight a bomb exploded injuring fifty people. Most countries have been subject to some form of terrorist attack, but this was the country’s first.

So what is going on?

Since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko has ruled the country with increasingly authoritarian measures. The country became independent in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the Soviet post-war years, Belarus became one of the most prosperous parts of the USSR, but with independence came economic decline.

The following is from the BBC News website:

Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe’s last dictator, was declared to have won a third term as president at elections in March 2006 following a vote which Western observers said was fundamentally flawed.

President Lukashenko takes pride in his authoritarian style

They reported widespread harassment of opposition supporters and overwhelming media bias. Official results indicated that Mr Lukashenko had won over 80% of the vote.

The EU and US condemned the election while Russian President Vladimir Putin sent congratulations(What a surprise). The EU also banned the president and a number of ministers and officials from entering member countries. Mr Lukashenko’s assets in the EU and US are frozen.

A former state farm director, Mr Lukashenko was first elected president in 1994, following his energetic performance as chairman of the parliamentary anti-corruption committee.

A 1996 referendum gave the president greatly increased powers at the expense of parliament and extended his term by two years. He won a further five years in office in 2001 presidential elections condemned as undemocratic by Western observers. Another referendum in October 2004 supported lifting the two-term limit on Mr Lukashenko’s rule, allowing him to stand again in 2006.

Over the years, several opposition politicians who might have provided leadership have disappeared or been imprisoned. Insulting the president, even in jest, carries a prison sentence.

The president remains defiant in the face of Western pressure for change. He has dismissed all possibility of revolutions such as those which brought an end to old-style regimes in Georgia and neighbouring Ukraine. He insists that he will preserve stability “no matter what it costs”.

Lukashenko has sort closer ties with Russia than the EU and the “west”, but it would appear that Russia and Belarus have grown apart since they quarreled over energy prices last year, energy that Belarus is dependent on.

Belarus refuses to release former presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin, imprisoned on charges of organising protests against the 2006 election. Currently Belorussian Christians are being arrested for attempts to express their views freely.

There was a program on BBC2 in the UK which drew my attention to Belarus where a woman was arrested and imprisoned for five days for allegedly having an EU flag in her rucksack. The media has been suppressed to the point that the only media is owned by the state.

Back to the explosion. Who did it?

The opposition feared that it would be blamed for the explosion, which will provoke a crackdown which has already begun with the KGB(Believe it or not) already reeling in opposition members, although there are reports that they were quickly released.

You could possibly say that the device that created the explosion was planted by others with the sole intention of blaming the opposition. However, there is also talk of a power struggle within the ruling elite. Quite a few officials privately admit that they are fed up with the president and the isolation he has imposed on the country. But they are afraid of him. President Lukashenko controls the army and the police, who are very loyal to him.

Lukashenko has sacked Security Council chief Viktor Sheiman, a highly influential ally from when the president came to power in 1994 and linked by Western countries to the 1990s disappearance of opposition figures. Presidential chief of staff Gennady Nevyglas has also been fired, whether this is the president dealing with potential political opponents or is simply removing personnel who are potential stumbling blocks when dealing with the western powers…

So you may wonder: why would Lukashenko want to possibly appear friendlier to the EU/West?

The only possible answer I have got so far is from Stanislav Belkovsky, an independent Russian analyst and head of Moscow’s National Strategy Institute who said:

“Lukashenko is doomed to trying to befriend the West as he has come to the conclusion that Russia cannot be an ally or defend him,  But the bomb has nothing to do with this. It was a sign of the struggle for power in Lukashenko’s entourage.”

An awful lot would have to change in Belarus before the west would even consider improving relations, change I would suspect Lukashenko would be extremely reluctant to carry out.